The second half of the consultant, HNTB, study results for bus, bike and pedestrian travel were presented Monday Dec 11, 2017 at the CH Public Library. The first half of the presentation was of the motor vehicle traffic modeling for the year 2030, done October 5, 2017. The summary presentations from both meetings can be found here at the top of the list of Ephesus-Fordham district related traffic study materials:
http://www.townofchapelhill.org/town-hall/departments-services/chapel-hill-2020/future-focus-areas/the-ephesus-fordham-district/updates/transportation
The final result of the Oct 5 vehicle traffic study presentation is that the HNTB trip modeling shows that 24,700 feet of new pavement, at an approximate cost of $20 million in 2017 dollars, will be required to keep traffic “humming” at current levels of congestion in the greater Ephesus Fordham area (primarily along Fordham Blvd from I40 to Manning Drive) per using the TransModeler package that the Town has purchased.
The results of the bus, bike and pedestrian modeling presented on Dec 11 show that considerable additional cost will be required to meet the modeling assumptions used in the vehicle traffic simulation, e.g. bus travel reduced the overall number of trips generated by the new growth in the Blue Hill, Glen Lennox and nearby area developments like Wegmans, by a whopping 10%! This requires a significant extension to the CL bus route including nearly doubling the peak hour bus capacity in the area from an average load of 37 passengers to 70 passengers. Obviously our buses, with a max standing capacity of 48 passengers, will need additional buses added to the fleet. My current estimate is that 6 additional buses (adding about 5% to the fleet) will be needed and a 10% increase in hours of service will be required to meet the 10% reduction in Blue Hill trip generation that the consultants assumed in their model. This would total $3 million in capital and $2.5 million in annual cost of CH Transit operations.
The consultants indicated that they were not tasked with providing any cost information as part of their “mission scope”, but that they are able to provide an estimate of the additional number of buses needed to meet the 10% trip reduction modeled along with the number of additional bus service hours — because the TransModeler output provides these details. This detail has been requested.
However, the review of the 2030 bike and pedestrian traffic modeling, which likewise shows significant intersection failure for human powered travel, did not allow any way to identify the cost of the needed greenway, sidewalk and pedestrian traffic signals to be determined because the TransModeler output does not provide this detail — again, a shortfall in the mission scope.
The closest that one can estimate the bike/ped 2030 cost of needed improvements is to use the output from the “Transportation and Connectivity” study recently completed by Stewart Engineering for the Town. This study identified well over 100 sidewalk and greenway additions to make the Town “pedestrian and bike friendly” by 2030. Of these identified improvements, 20 were judged to be critical and should be implemented immediately for safety and connectivity reasons. A close look at these items shows that many are in the greater Ephesus Fordham area. These 20 improvements have an estimated cost $12 million. Although this $12 million does include improvements along MLKjr Blvd, etc, it does not include many needed in the Blue Hill area; therefore I make the crude judgement that the total needs for the Blue Hill district are of similar total cost.
A final output from the 2030 Blue Hill mobility modeling showed the need for tunnels or bridges for safe bike and pedestrian crossing of both Franklin St and Fordham Blvd in the heart of the district at a previously identified cost of $4-$5 million each. Without these infrastructure additions, the Blue Hill area will be essentially inaccessible to pedestrian and bicyclists by 2030 given projected traffic levels, based on the modeled level of service class that yields class “F” results — the worst possible.
Of note, the 2030 traffic modeling also assumes that the proposed light rail (DOLRT) will reduce traffic in the Blue Hill district by 7%. This seems exceptionally optimistic, but this is the input provided to HNTB by GoTriangle.
The consultants closed with a detailed review of their recommendation for two new “super streets” along Fordham Blvd because of the significant reduction in traffic delays that would otherwise exist. Without the Super Streets, Fordham will need to be widened to 8 lanes (4 in each direction), but with the proposed two new Super Streets, only a portion of Fordham needs to be widened to 6 lanes in the area of these traffic loops to maintain current levels of traffic congestion.
To sum up, the infrastructure investment costs that the Blue Hill, Glen Lennox and immediate surrounding developments, including the Wegman’s store, will need by 2030 is:
Mode of Travel Capital Annual Operations
Road improvements$20 million
New Buses$3 million$2.5 million
Bike and Pedestrian $12 million
(2) bridge/tunnels $10 million
Total $45 million $25 million for 10 years
Note that these amounts are in 2017 dollars and if spent in 2030, the total amount would be higher by half again. Also note that these totals do not include the $10 million already borrowed by the Town, via TIF financing using Town Hall as collateral, for the Elliott Road extension, the Ephesus Church intersection “improvement” and the stormwater studies and improvements in the area (culverts under Elliott near Fordham, etc).
Since it already takes ALL of the new property tax expected to be generated by the New Blue Hill developments over the next 20 years to just pay back the $10 million TIF on Town Hall, it is highly unlikely that the growth projected for the Blue Hill district will ever pay for the infrastructure needed to make the district functional at today’s level of service.
Thus, folks, expect your property taxes to escalate significantly and the traffic to strikingly worsen over the next decade as Council tries to “thread the needle” to reduce infrastructure costs identified in the HNTB Traffic Study, the Stewart Engineering Mobility and Connectivity Study, and the W.K. Dickson Booker Creek Watershed Study.
As an afterthought, I inquired about the plan for training Town staff in the use of the TransModeler software that the Town owns. Per Ben Hitchings, only Kumar Neppalli will receive the initial one week training on using the modeling software held at NC State Univ. Since the HNTB Blue Hill traffic study and modeling cost $150,000 and still covers only 1/5 of the area of the Town, completing the Town-Wide modeling will cost at least another $500,000 if done by consultants. I told Ben that citizens will strongly recommend that the Town hire a full time staff member to handle modeling needs so that incremental “what if” cases can be handled expeditiously. Already, several shortcomings to the current HNTB model runs surfaced during their public presentations that ought to be redone immediately. Additionally, Council is likely to ask what improvements are needed by 2020 and what are the projected costs of these?
Proper long range planning by Town planning staff would require a list of the time sequence of infrastructure improvements needed that correspond to developments as they are scheduled in and around the Blue Hill district so that Town financial staff can use budget modeling to prepare for these coming massive expenses.
Cheers and Happy Holidays,
… Fred Lampe