April 25, 2017
Dear Mayor Hemminger and Town Council Members,
CHALT wishes to call attention to several issues that should be addressed before approving the Elliot Road extension.
Before an Elliot Road extension can proceed, it is imperative that a Town-Wide Traffic Impact Analysis, which Council called for in 2013, be conducted. You may question the necessity for this analysis, given the recently presented HTNB 2030 FUTURE YEAR ANALYSIS. However, There are four serious deficiencies in the analysis that will adversely affect the mobility level of service in the area. Ironically, a failure to plan adequately for expected traffic congestion would detract from Chapel Hill’s appeal and hinder our ability to attract new residents and businesses to the area.
- Level of impact by development outside the HNTB model area
Eighty percent (80%) of the town’s geographic area lies outside of the area evaluated by HNTB and a great deal of that is undergoing greatly increased development. Because those who reside in Northern Chapel Hill will travel to other parts of the town, the analysis needs to factor in, traffic growth stemming from new units in Carraway Village (Phase 1 400 units), Hanover, (303 units), Evolve (154 units) Active Adult Apartments (190 units) along with existing residences. The same is true for Downtown. Wegman’s alone will be a magnet to shoppers from all over Chapel Hill, as well as—we hope— Durham.
- Modeling errors within the HNTB area
HNTB allowed for a 1.5% annual growth factor. However, this estimate was made before UNC Healthcare’s 2.2 million sq ft redevelopment of Eastowne was known. Nor does the HTNB analysis take into account the cumulative total buildout of Blue Hill parcel zones WX 5/7 and WR 3/7, and development beyond the artificial parameters of the study area. The annual growth factor percentage therefore needs to be adjusted upward.
- Allowance for transit use
HTNB decreased road trips by 10% to allow for transit use PLUS another 7% for DOLRT use. As you know, the DOLRT funding has not yet been awarded and Ken Pennoyer, Town Budget director, said in 2015 that he did not foresee any additional funding availability for transit for the Ephesus Fordham area. This raises the question of whether the reduction in generated trips is realistic and, if it is not realistic, how that will impact traffic congestion.
- HNTB Traffic Remediation Plan
The HNTB traffic remediation plan indicates 3 important points:
- a) If—a big “if”— all the remediation recommendations are implemented, traffic flow will remain at today’s level of congestion in 2030 (Note: that is without accounting for increased trips generated by modeling errors, out of area traffic, or lack of adequate transit)
- b) The HNTB plan calls for 2 new bike/pedestrian bridges over Franklin Street and Fordham Blvd in order to avoid leaving pedestrians and bike riders stranded. There is no assurance that NCDOT will fund any improvements to Fordham Blvd concurrent with congestion needs and a Franklin Street bridge would remain unfunded.
- c) The timing of the remediation steps in the HNTB report is not synchronized with the progress of development in the area. If most of the forecasted (and non-forecasted) development in the area is built by 2020 (and a lot of it is already underway), but only a fraction of the improvements have been done, the adverse mobility the consequences will be severe and inexcusable.
Del Snow for CHALT